A report has indicated that the cost of preparing Nigeria’s most iconic meal, jollof rice, has risen by an alarming 624 per cent over the past decade, highlighting the deepening
A report has indicated that the cost of preparing Nigeria’s most iconic meal, jollof rice, has risen by an alarming 624 per cent over the past decade, highlighting the deepening affordability crisis facing millions of households as climate change, insecurity, poor infrastructure and rising transport costs continue to strain the country’s food supply chain.
This was the central finding of the ‘SBM Jollof Index Q2 2026 Report’, titled ‘Rebasing, Redefining, and the Weather’s Toll on the Pot’, which revealed that the national average cost of cooking a standard pot of jollof rice climbed from N25,798 in July 2025 to N29,578 in June 2026, representing a 14.6 per cent increase within 12 months.
The report, which marked the second decade of the Jollof Index, also introduced a rebased methodology reflecting how Nigerians now actually cook, replacing turkey with chicken as the standard protein and adopting more precise ingredient measurements to better capture the realities of household consumption.
According to SBM Intelligence, the rebasing does not merely change the statistical baseline but paints a more realistic picture of the country’s worsening food affordability crisis.
“The long-term trajectory is stark,” the report stated, noting that every geopolitical zone has experienced food cost increases exceeding 400 per cent since the index began tracking prices across Nigeria.
The Southwest recorded the steepest increase of 708.2 per cent, followed by the Northcentral at 567.3 per cent, South-South 489.9 per cent, Northeast 467.5 per cent, Southeast 441.3 per cent, and Northwest 428 per cent.
SBM observed that although Nigeria’s headline inflation has shown signs of easing, food inflation remains stubborn because the underlying drivers extend beyond monetary policy.
It identified insecurity in farming communities, deteriorating logistics, poor road infrastructure, climate-induced flooding, volatile exchange rates, transport costs and rising protein prices as the principal factors behind escalating food prices.
The report further noted that protein continues to account for the largest share of the cost of preparing jollof rice, making meat increasingly unaffordable for average households.
One of the report’s most striking findings was the growing disparity between food prices across Nigerian cities.
It revealed that the gap between the country’s cheapest and most expensive markets has widened significantly, underscoring increasing fragmentation in Nigeria’s food distribution network.
Calabar Municipal emerged as Nigeria’s most expensive market for cooking jollof rice at N34,750, while Awka remained the cheapest at N22,050, leaving a price difference of N12,700 between both cities.
Lagos recorded the sharpest increase nationwide. According to the report, the Trade Fair and Balogun markets experienced a 49.6 per cent rise within one year, climbing from N23,200 in July 2025 to N34,700 by June 2026.
SBM attributed the spike to Lagos’ role as Nigeria’s import gateway, where imported food ingredients, shipping costs, currency depreciation and rising fuel prices combine to exert upward pressure on food prices.
The report also linked the March 2026 fuel shock arising from tensions surrounding the Iran conflict to sharp monthly increases in Lagos food prices. While Lagos experienced dramatic increases, other regions recorded mixed outcomes.
Bauchi, once Nigeria’s most inflationary food market, witnessed a 16.7 per cent decline over the review period after improved harvests and better supply routes moderated prices.
Nevertheless, SBM cautioned that the decline represents only relative relief, as prices remain significantly higher than historical levels.
Kano recorded a comparatively modest increase of 5.3 per cent, while Awkaand Onitsha remained Nigeria’s least expensive markets despite modest price increases.
The report devoted considerable attention to climate change, describing heavy rainfall as an increasingly powerful driver of food inflation.
According to SBM, flooding, delayed harvests, damaged farmlands, washed-out roads and rising transportation costs combined to create shortages of tomatoes, peppers and other highly perishable food items across virtually every region of the country.
The report found that Lagos consumers have increasingly substituted fresh tomatoes with carrot-based sauces, dried pepper and tomato paste, while households in Calabar, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano and Abuja have similarly embraced cheaper alternatives due to supply shortages.
Bauchi witnessed some of the most severe tomato inflation, with prices reportedly rising by over 200 per cent in certain markets because of weather disruptions.
Across Nigeria, consumers are increasingly replacing yam with potatoes, fresh pepper with dried alternatives, and premium proteins with crayfish, eggs or cow skin (ponmo), according to the report.
SBM warned that these substitutions represent survival strategies rather than improvements in household welfare.
The report argued that Nigeria’s food system lacks resilience because poor storage facilities, weak logistics infrastructure and limited insurance coverage leave farmers and traders vulnerable to every major weather event.
It noted that climate variability has transformed seasonal disruptions into recurring supply shocks capable of pushing up prices nationwide.
The report also presented testimonies from households in Kaduna and Kano, illustrating how ordinary Nigerians are coping with rising food costs. Respondents said bulk buying has become a luxury, with many households now purchasing ingredients only when needed because they can no longer afford large purchases.
Some respondents reported abandoning fresh tomatoes entirely in favour of sachet tomato paste, while others disclosed reducing the amount of seasoning, meat and vegetables used in cooking.
The report further found that women increasingly blamed rising fuel prices, insecurity, transportation costs and government policies for escalating food prices, with many expressing concerns that the affordability crisis continues to worsen.
Looking beyond Nigeria, the report noted that Ghana experienced a relatively more stable food environment.
Accra and Kumasi both recorded declines in their Jollof Index values over the review period, supported by a relatively stable cedi and easing global grain prices, although SBM warned that the relief remains fragile because Ghana still depends heavily on imported food commodities.
Despite Ghana’s relative stability, the report observed that the dollar cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice in both countries has now converged, with Nigeria’s national average costing approximately $22.75, compared to $22.17 in Ghana.
In its outlook, SBM warned that Nigeria’s food inflation remains fundamentally structural and cannot be addressed through monetary policy alone.
The report urged policymakers to tackle insecurity, improve transport infrastructure, strengthen agricultural resilience, invest in storage facilities and build climate adaptation measures capable of protecting the country’s food supply chain against increasingly frequent weather shocks.
It concluded that the jollof pot has become West Africa’s most honest economic indicator, reflecting not only movements in food prices but also the daily sacrifices households make to cope with inflation.
“The question is not whether prices will rise further, but whether governments can build the resilience needed to protect the most vulnerable. The answer, on current evidence, is uncertain. But the jollof pot will continue to tell the story,” the report stated.
