NRS Says Tinubu’s Reforms Shifted Economy From Crisis To Recovery

NRS says tax reforms, subsidy removal and FX unification strengthened recovery as revenue surged and investor confidence improved.  

Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) said the economy made a significant transition from a period of acute macroeconomic distress to a more stable and resilient footing within three years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

In its Economic Snapshot Report (ESR) 2023 vs 2026, the service cited sweeping fiscal, monetary and structural reforms as major drivers of the economic turnaround.

The report stated that the country’s economic trajectory had shifted from crisis management to consolidation, following reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidy, foreign exchange market unification, implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), tighter monetary policy, and a comprehensive overhaul of the nation’s tax administration framework.

ESR pointed out that these reforms had strengthened macroeconomic stability, rebuilt external buffers, restored investor confidence, and expanded government revenue, while positioning NRS at the centre of Nigeria’s fiscal transformation.

The report acknowledged that challenges remained, particularly in improving the tax-to-GDP ratio, reducing the share of government revenue devoted to debt servicing, and addressing the country’s large number of out-of-school children.

Despite the positive outlook, NRS urged sustained reforms to lower debt servicing costs, expand the tax-to-GDP ratio towards the government’s 18 per cent target, and strengthen coordination with states to tackle the out-of-school children challenge.

It also recommended institutionalising Executive Order 9 in legislation, developing a fiscal framework for the emerging gas economy, establishing a joint capital-flow monitoring system with Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and positioning NRS as a strategic provider of real-time economic intelligence for government policy.

The report said when the current administration assumed office on May 29, 2023, the economy was weighed down by an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, multiple foreign exchange windows, weak oil production, and an underperforming tax administration system.

Three years later, it said virtually every major macroeconomic indicator had improved.

According to the report, headline inflation, which peaked at 34.8 per cent in late 2024, had moderated to 15.9 per cent in 2026, while the balance of payments had moved from a deficit to a surplus.

It added that external reserves had climbed from a balance of about $3.99 billion at inauguration to $50.11 billion in June 2026, representing the country’s highest reserve level in 17 years.

The NRS report also pointed to the country’s successful return to the Eurobond market in November 2025, saying the record oversubscription reflects improving international confidence in the country’s fiscal outlook.

It stated, however, that although total public debt rose in Naira terms due largely to exchange rate revaluation, the debt-to-GDP ratio had declined to 32.3 per cent, marking the first sustained reduction in more than a decade.

On the productive sector, the report described developments in the oil industry as one of the administration’s major achievements.

It pointed out that crude oil and condensate production increased from about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.9 million barrels per day by May 2026, surpassing Nigeria’s OPEC production quota.

The report attributed the improvement to stronger security operations against crude theft, implementation of the PIA, and renewed investor confidence.

It described the country’s emergence as a net exporter of petrol in March 2026 as one of the most consequential developments during the review period.

Domestic refining capacity, it said, had expanded from about 30,000 barrels per day to about 700,000 barrels daily, significantly reducing reliance on imported petroleum products and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.

The report equally highlighted improvements in external trade and investment. It stated that the country’s trade balance recorded a surplus of N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by stronger crude exports and growing shipments of refined petroleum products.

Capital importation also rose sharply from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while diaspora remittances increased to $23 billion following reforms that channelled more inflows through formal financial institutions.

On revenue mobilisation, the report said collections by the former Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), now NRS,  more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N28.3 trillion in 2025, with N21.6 trillion already realised in the first half of 2026.

It credited the performance to digital tax administration, e-invoicing, implementation of the four new tax laws, the expansion of NRS’ mandate and Executive Order 9, which it said significantly increased Federation Account receipts by closing remittance leakages in the oil sector.

The report said non-oil taxes now accounted for about 76 per cent of total collections, reflecting growing diversification of government revenue.

It also identified notable gains in the solid minerals sector, where government revenue increased from N16 billion before the reforms to over N70 billion in 2025 following tighter regulation, improved enforcement and the transfer of royalty collection to the NRS.

The service cited increased infrastructure financing, higher investment in agriculture, and the rollout of Presidential CNG Initiative as additional reforms expected to strengthen productivity and reduce transport costs over the medium term.