World Bank says Nigeria’s economy grew 4.2% in first half of 2026, with revenues and reserves improving.
President Bola Tinubu on Sunday defended his administration’s economic reforms, citing stronger economic growth, rising foreign reserves and increased revenues to states, and welcomed last week’s World Bank report indicating Nigeria’s steady economic growth.
The president also disclosed that the federal government had forgone more than N3.3 trillion in fuel taxes and duties to cushion the impact of rising petrol prices, while highlighting the expansion of compressed natural gas (CNG) transportation as part of efforts to reduce the cost of living.
The president’s comments on the reforms came as the country emerged among the top 10 recipients of the $112 billion private capital mobilised by the World Bank Group in the year ended June 2026, according to information from the global lender.
Besides, the presidency has again knocked the fuel production subsidy being proposed by former Vice President and candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the January 2027 presidential poll, Atiku Abubakar, describing it as ‘unrealistic’.
However, in a statement issued by his Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu said the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled: “Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities,” confirmed that the difficult decisions taken since 2023 were beginning to yield results.
Tinubu said the removal of the petrol subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and efforts to strengthen fiscal discipline had increased government revenues, stabilised the economy and created room for federal and state governments to invest in development.
“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people.
“The dividends of reform are becoming visible. But more work remains to ensure they fully translate into better living standards for every household, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for our young people.
“Our administration will stay the course of reform and redouble its focus on inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda,” he assured.
What the World Bank Report Says
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, despite the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. The World Bank also projected that growth would average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
Besides, the World Bank report found that federation revenues increased by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with state governments emerging as the largest beneficiaries. The additional resources enabled states to raise capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms over the same period.
Most of the increase in state spending, it said, went into roads and other transport infrastructure, agriculture, energy and housing. According to the report, 29 of 33 states shifted their spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person increased in all but one state.
The report also found that Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025. Nigeria’s overall public debt is projected to decline from 40 per cent of gross domestic product in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
On inflation, the report noted that the rate fell from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. However, higher global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have slowed the pace of disinflation, even as the World Bank said it expects inflation to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external position also improved, with the current account surplus rising to $12 billion, equivalent to 7 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, from $8.6 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. Gross external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.
The report further indicated that poverty had stabilised for the first time since 2019, with the World Bank expecting a gradual decline as economic growth outpaces population growth.
Tinubu Elated, Welcomes Findings
While welcoming the report, Tinubu said his administration would expand targeted cash transfers, which he said had reached more than 10 million households, while accelerating CNG deployment and improving agricultural productivity, healthcare and education.
“I urge state governments to use their higher revenues more prudently and prioritise projects that improve the living standards of Nigerians, and the health and education of our people.
“I commend the Economic Management Team led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, state governors and all stakeholders for their cooperation in implementing these reforms.
“I assure Nigerians that the best is yet to come under the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0, which will accelerate the delivery of shared prosperity for all Nigerians,” he stated.
Beyond the development update, the president used his message on X yesterday to highlight what he described as the benefits of government-backed CNG transportation, citing commuters and commercial drivers who said the alternative fuel had reduced their travel costs.
Tinubu expressing his view on a documentary on the progress of the CNG initiative in Nigeria, recounted the experience of some citizens, including Blessing, whose journey from Masaka to Berger in the Federal Capital Territory, he said now costs N500, compared with N1,500 previously, representing a saving of N1,000 per trip.
He also cited Ada and Abigail, who reportedly pay N1,600 to travel from Enugu to Nsukka instead of N4,000, saving N2,400 per journey. A taxi driver in the video, Kabir, told the president that N10,000 worth of CNG enabled him to make three additional return trips compared with colleagues using petrol. Tinubu also said he had received reports from Borno of commuters paying as little as N50 per trip on CNG and electric vehicles.
“Your various experiences show what our investment in CNG transportation is intended to achieve. Lower operating costs for drivers should translate into more affordable fares for passengers, leaving families with more money for their everyday needs.
“When we removed the petrol subsidy, I knew the decision would bring difficulties for many households. With that decision came a responsibility to provide practical alternatives that would ease transportation costs. Your stories show this is already happening, and I want more Nigerians to experience these benefits,” he added.
The president said the federal government was working with state governments, through the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), and private investors to expand services under the National Affordable CNG Transportation Programme.
He disclosed that Ekiti had received 15 buses in recent weeks, Lagos 20, while Akwa Ibom had 50 buses ready for service. Katsina had introduced 30 CNG hybrid buses and 200 electric tricycles, while Kano had received 30 CNG buses and five electric buses, with another rollout scheduled for Edo.
Tinubu added that Kaduna’s 100 CNG buses had carried more than 3 million passengers, while over 400 certified centres had converted more than 120,000 vehicles to CNG. The government, he said, was also expanding refuelling infrastructure to improve access to alternative fuel.
“I also recognise the pressure rising petrol prices place on families and businesses. To cushion the impact, we have waived over N3.3 trillion in fuel taxes and duties. NNPC Retail is foregoing its profit margin for 30 days, prioritising public transport operators, while we work towards a N1,350-per-litre ceiling on wholesale petrol supply costs to reduce price volatility.
“These measures are intended to ease the immediate burden while we continue expanding affordable transportation alternatives,” he pointed out.
Tinubu also challenged opposition politicians seeking to lead the country to explain the cost and sustainability of their proposals, arguing that political promises must be supported by credible financing plans.
He added: “Every commitment must be sustainable and backed by a credible plan. That responsibility guides our decisions, including the difficult ones. Anyone seeking to lead Nigeria should be prepared to explain what their promises will cost, how they will deliver them, and whether they can sustain them.
“Promises are easy to make when the costs can be postponed, leaving Nigerians and future generations to pay the bill.”
‘Nigeria Among Top 10 Recipients of $112bn Private Capital’
The president’s defence of the reforms came as Nigeria has emerged among the top 10 recipients of private capital mobilised by the World Bank Group. The bank attracted a record $112 billion in private capital in the year ended June 2026, up from $69 billion in the preceding year.
World Bank Group President, Ajay Banga, disclosed the figures in an interview with Reuters ahead of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Nigeria was listed alongside Brazil, India, Turkey, Romania, Argentina, South Africa, Bangladesh, Mexico and Chile among the leading recipients.
The $112 billion in private capital mobilised was in addition to $123 billion invested from the World Bank Group’s own resources, bringing its combined financing to $235 billion during the year. Africa attracted $22 billion in private capital, while Latin America and the Caribbean received $36.3 billion, Europe and Central Asia $21.3 billion, and South Asia $19.2 billion.
The World Bank’s figures indicated the scale of efforts to draw private investment into developing economies at a time of mounting financing needs.
Banga said the World Bank was also discussing potential crisis assistance with 30 to 40 countries as rising energy and fertiliser prices linked to the Middle East conflict threaten to increase economic pressures.
The bank had initially made $25 billion available to countries when the conflict began in late February, but relatively few had sought assistance at first, partly because the global economy had proved more resilient than anticipated. Banga said countries could access another $35 billion by redirecting resources from previously approved World Bank projects.
“There is pressure, and so I think maybe over the coming months, more countries will come for some slice of that first $50 to $60 billion,” Banga said. “We’ll see, but we’re ready. We’re engaged. We’re having conversations with a number of them, you know, 30 to 40 countries are in dialogue with us,” he added.
Banga said the bank could make as much as $100 billion available if the situation deteriorated, exceeding the $70 billion it disbursed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Presidency Knocks Atiku’s Petrol Subsidy Proposal
Meanwhile, the presidency yesterday again knocked the fuel production subsidy being proposed by former Vice President Atiku.
Describing it as unrealistic, it explained that Nigeria doesn’t have the crude oil volumes to fund it. It also described the plan as a dangerous mathematical fantasy wrapped in political deceit.
Presidential spokesperson, Sunday Dare, made this submission in a statement entitled “Atiku’s Demagoguery in the Face of Tinubu’s Logical Policies,” describing the recent news conference addressed in Abuja by Atiku, as “a seminal example of shallow, election-laced demagoguery.”
Atiku had criticised the 30-day discount on petrol by NNPC Retail and a price modulation framework, which he described as a “panic-driven gimmick,”. He also claimed that Tinubu copied his economic homework without the production subsidy that made it work.
Dare cited the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, as saying on national television that Nigeria produces about 1.8 million barrels of crude per day for a population of over 200 million. The presidency added that the country does not really own all the oil produced daily.
It stressed that under joint ventures and production sharing contracts signed over decades, production costs, royalties and profit-oil sharing ratios “severely reduce the equity crude available to the state,” leaving fewer than 700,000 barrels per day of unencumbered free crude.
“To propose a blanket ‘targeted production subsidy’ on crude without the physical, unencumbered volume to back it up is pure economic illiteracy, invites the very opacity, fraudulent round-tripping, and fiscal haemorrhage that crippled Nigeria for decades under the old subsidy regime,” it emphasised.
The presidency noted that refineries such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery need more feedstock than the state can freely supply without breaching international supply contracts, which is why Dangote and other domestic refiners also import crude.
It, therefore, rejected a comparison of crude allocation with farm produce like garri or cassava, saying it misrepresented commodity markets.
The government also pointed to the United States, which it said produces over 10 million barrels per day for 330 million people but sells petroleum at market prices, and to Qatar, which it said had to cut energy subsidies significantly despite its large gas reserves and a population of under 500,000.
“Atiku’s attempt to frame NNPC Retail’s decision to forgo its profit margin as a return to the fuel subsidy is a deliberate mischaracterisation designed to mislead the public and incite public dissatisfaction. First, NNPC had offered the discount to celebrate the 66th Independence anniversary. It merely offered to extend the discount by another 30 days.
“The administration’s intervention is a market-smoothing price modulation framework, not a return to unbudgeted federal spending. When NNPC Retail agrees to sell fuel at landing cost for 30 days during an unprecedented global crude price spike, it is not writing checks to opaque import cartels. It is leveraging its corporate balance sheet to absorb short-term global volatility, backed directly by President Bola Tinubu.
“Furthermore, the federal government’s negotiation of an interim N1,350 per litre ceiling on ex-gantry costs is a structural shock absorber, not price control. Under this framework, refiners and importers absorb short-term cost spikes above the ceiling and recover those costs later when global crude prices cool or local exchange rates adjust,” it explained.
It further stated that the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate had ended a multi-trillion-naira drain on public funds, which now flows to the 36 states and local governments through allocations.
According to the presidency, fuel queues have been eliminated and the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates closed.
“The government eliminated multi-day fuel queues. For decades, Nigerians spent days sleeping at filling stations due to artificial scarcity, hoarding, and unpaid subsidy claims. Today, despite global energy shocks, fuel queues have been eradicated nationwide because market forces drive supply.
“The dangerous gap between the official and parallel exchange rates—which let well-connected political elites collect official dollars cheaply and sell them on the black market for instant billions—has been eliminated,” it stressed.
